New Brownian bridge construction in quasi-Monte Carlo methods for computational finance

Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods have been playing an important role for high-dimensional problems in computational finance. Several techniques, such as the Brownian bridge (BB) and the principal component analysis, are often used in QMC as possible ways to improve the performance of QMC. This paper proposes a new BB construction, which enjoys some interesting properties that appear useful in QMC methods. The basic idea is to choose the new step of a Brownian path in a certain criterion such that it maximizes the variance explained by the new variable while holding all previously chosen steps fixed. It turns out that using this new construction, the first few variables are more “important” (in the sense of explained variance) than those in the ordinary BB construction, while the cost of the generation is still linear in dimension. We present empirical studies of the proposed algorithm for pricing high-dimensional Asian options and American options, and demonstrate the usefulness of the new BB.     

Pricing under quality of service uncertainty: Market segmentation via statistical QoS guarantees

This article examines how performance-contingent pricing schemes with long-term statistical performance guarantees can be applied to many IT services. We study two forms of performance-contingent pricing, with rebate proportional to failure rate and fixed rebate for below-threshold performance. We show that threshold-performance contingency pricing can increase both profits and fairness (customers who receive higher benefits pay higher effective price) relative to standard pricing. But an even better solution is to offer a menu of performance guarantees: this can increase the firm’s profit and segment the market. Only service providers whose performance level is sufficiently better than the industry standard can benefit from this pricing mechanism.     

Dependence properties and comparison results for Lévy processes

In this paper we investigate dependence properties and comparison results for multidimensional Lévy processes. In particular we address the questions, whether or not dependence properties and orderings of the copulas of the distributions of a Lévy process can be characterized by corresponding properties of the Lévy copula, a concept which has been introduced recently in Cont and Tankov (Financial modelling with jump processes. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, 2004) and Kallsen and Tankov (J Multivariate Anal 97:1551–1572, 2006). It turns out that association, positive orthant dependence and positive supermodular dependence of Lévy processes can be characterized in terms of the Lévy measure as well as in terms of the Lévy copula. As far as comparisons of Lévy processes are concerned we consider the supermodular and the concordance order and characterize them by orders of the Lévy measures and by orders of the Lévy copulas, respectively. An example is given that the Lévy copula does not determine dependence concepts like multivariate total positivity of order 2 or conditionally increasing in sequence. Besides these general results we specialize our findings for subfamilies of Lévy processes. The last section contains some applications in finance and insurance like comparison statements for ruin times, ruin probabilities and option prices which extends the current literature. Anja Blatter was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG).     

连续红利支付在跳扩散模型下的再装期权的定价

本文在连续时间支付红利,且股票价格服从Poisson跳-扩散过程的假设下,建立股票价格模型,并应用保险精算法给出一类奇异期权—再装期权再装一次情况下的定价公式.     

考虑闲置产能分享参与者利益的平台定价研究

信息技术的快速发展,使得闲置产能的分享逐渐成为生产领域重要的产能利用模式。为研究闲置产能分享时平台的最优定价问题,在平台向供给者收取交易费而对需求者不收费的条件下,首先,建立商业平台和公益平台的基础模型,并对两类平台进行分析和对比;然后,在基础模型之上构建以一定权重考虑其他参与者利益的平台X的定价模型,探讨权重对最优交易费、供需双方的数量以及平台最优利润的影响;最后,用数值例子验证文中重要定理以及权重对供需双方效用产生的影响。研究结果表明:(1)商业平台收取的最优交易费和获得的最优利润均高于公益平台;(2)考虑其他参与者利益的平台X收取的最优交易费和获得的最优利润、需求者(免费方)的数量和效用均随着权重的增加而增加,而供给者(被收费方)的数量及其效用则随着权重的增加而减少。研究结果为平台运营商和企业的行为决策提供理论参考依据。     

基于跳-分形模型的美式看涨期权定价

假设股票变化过程服从跳一分形布朗运动,根据风险中性定价原理对股票发生跳跃次数的收益求条件期望现值推导出M次离散支付红利的美式看涨期权解析定价方程,并使用外推加速法求出当M趋于无穷时方程的二重、三重正态积分多项式表达,依此计算连续支付红利美式看涨期权价值.数值模拟表明通常仅需二重正态积分多项式能产生精确价值,而在极实值状态下则需三重正态积分多项式才能满足,结合两种多项式可以编出有效数字程序评价支付红利的美式看涨期权.     

短视型创新企业最优定价研究

率先创新使企业拥有时间和产品竞争力上的优势,获得先动优势;而模仿创新减少企业的研发成本,更能满足顾客的需求,从而可以获得更高的成功率,使模仿创新企业获得后进优势.针对短视型创新企业行为,研究以原始创新产品进入市场、模仿创新产品进入市场、原始创新产品的升级换代产品进入市场为分隔点的产品生命周期不同阶段下率先创新企业对产品的最优定价,以及模仿创新企业采用不同价格策略下的产品均衡定价.结论表明:无论企业采用什么价格策略,升级换代产品进入市场的最优时间都应满足升级换代产品进入市场前创新企业的阶段末瞬时利润率与进入市场后的初始瞬时利润率相等.     

Estimating the Firm Value Distribution Function by Entropy Optimization and Geometric Programming

By applying the option pricing theory ideas, this paper models the estimation of firm value distribution function as an entropy optimization problem, subject to correlation constraints. It is shown that the problem can be converted to a dual of a computationally attractive primal geometric programming (GP) problem and easily solved using publicly available software. A numerical example involving stock price data from a Japanese company demonstrates the practical value of the GP approach. Noting the use of Monte Carlo simulation in option pricing and risk analysis and its difficulties in handling distribution functions subject to correlations, the GP based method discussed here may have some computational advantages in wider areas of computational finance in addition to the application discussed here.     

考虑跟随企业搭便车行为的创新企业定价策略研究

文章通过构建博弈模型探讨了存在跟随企业搭便车行为时创新企业的定价策略及定价模式(稳定定价或动态定价),并分析了忠实消费者规模及需求溢出效应等特征对创新企业定价决策与利润的影响.结果表明,无论创新企业采用稳定定价或动态定价模式,跟随企业搭便车行为均会降低创新企业利润,需求溢出效应的增强总能使创新企业和跟随企业均获得更高的利润.动态定价模式下,当需求溢出效应较大时,创新企业会采用渗透定价策略;反之会采用撇脂定价策略.无论垄断或竞争市场情形下,均存在消费者规模阈值效应,即创新企业的利润随着忠实消费者规模的增大而先增大后减小.垄断市场下,动态定价模式能让创新企业获得更高利润;竞争市场下,当跟随企业质量处于较中间水平时,稳定定价模式能让创新企业获得更多优势.     

Research on Flood Loss Distribution and Catastrophe Bond Pricing Based on Bayesian Inference

Taking flood catastrophe risk in China as the research background, aiming at the characteristics of flood loss ``low frequency and high loss', Bayesian inference method is used to fit the loss distribution, and Bayesian inference is used to obtain the loss frequency distribution and loss quota distribution of flood in China. On this basis, Monte Carlo simulation method is used to calculate the probability distribution of annual flood loss in China under different trigger conditions, and then CAPM is used to study the pricing of flood catastrophe bonds in China. It is concluded that under different trigger conditions, as the trigger value increases gradually, the corresponding trigger is triggered. Comparing the three types of bonds, it can be found that the price of bonds decreases with the decrease of principal guarantee ratio and the increase of principal loss ratio, that is, the investment risk is directly proportional to the return, which provides reference for issuing flood catastrophe bonds in China.